Key Takeaways:
An estimated 1,500 million-dollar HDB transactions closed in 2025, up from 1,051 in 2024 — a ~43% increase in just one year.
Million-dollar HDB flats are no longer a Bishan or Queenstown phenomenon. The trend is spreading to mature estates across the island.
HDB 4-room resale prices in towns like Bukit Batok (+69%) and Sembawang (+68%) have surged more than 60% since 2020 — even without crossing the $1M mark.
Selling a million-dollar HDB does not mean walking away with $1M cash. CPF accrued interest at 2.5% p.a. must be refunded first.
For upgraders, a high resale price creates equity — but ABSD (20% on a second property for Singapore Citizens) means timing and sequencing matter enormously when moving into private property.
For buyers, paying $1M+ for an HDB means understanding Minimum Occupation Period, loan limits, and resale levy risk before committing.
This milestone is a signal, not a ceiling. The data suggests the market still has structural support from genuine demand and constrained supply.
Why 1,500 Is Not Just a Headline Number
When 1,051 million-dollar HDB transactions closed in 2024, it felt like an anomaly — concentrated in prime estates, older executive flats, and the kind of addresses that were already semi-legendary. When that number climbs to an estimated 1,500 in 2025, something has shifted structurally.
That is a 43% jump in one year. And it comes in a year when total HDB resale volume actually declined slightly — from 27,828 transactions in 2024 to 26,169 in 2025. This means the share of million-dollar deals within total resale volume is growing. It is not that more Singaporeans are buying HDB flats; it is that more of those flats are commanding prices that, a decade ago, would have seemed reserved for condominiums.
The more telling story is in the five-year price data. A 4-room flat in Bukit Batok has gone from a median of $360,000 in 2020 to $610,000 in 2025 — a 69% increase. Sembawang: $357,000 to $600,000, up 68%. These are not prime central estates. They are towns that families chose for space, affordability, and schools. The wealth creation has happened quietly, and for many homeowners, it has happened without them fully realising it.
Overall, HDB resale prices grew 2.9% in 2025 — moderate on paper, but that figure sits on top of compounding growth since 2020. The base is now simply much higher.
What "Million-Dollar HDB" Actually Looks Like in Practice
The phrase "million-dollar HDB" conjures a specific image: a large executive flat on a high floor in Bishan or Toa Payoh, maybe a unit in Queenstown that practically overlooks the city. And those transactions still dominate the top of the market — a 5-room in Queenstown at $820,000 median is not far from that threshold.
But the profile is broadening. Large 5-room and executive flats in Tampines, Bedok, and AMK are increasingly crossing the million-dollar mark, particularly for remaining lease above 75 years and high-floor or unobstructed units. What was once a postcode story is becoming a flat-type and lease story. The attribute that matters most is often not location alone — it is whether the flat checks multiple boxes simultaneously: size, age, views, school proximity, and remaining lease.
For sellers sitting on these units, the numbers look extraordinary. But there is a reality check that many overlook.
What you actually pocket from a million-dollar HDB sale:
Sale Price | $1,050,000 |
|---|---|
Outstanding HDB loan (example) | $180,000 |
CPF principal used | $280,000 |
CPF accrued interest (2.5% p.a.) | ~$95,000 |
Estimated agent fees (~2%) | ~$21,000 |
Estimated cash proceeds | ~$474,000 |
The CPF accrued interest piece surprises many sellers. Every dollar drawn from CPF for the flat accumulates interest at 2.5% per annum, and the full principal plus interest must be refunded to your CPF Ordinary Account upon sale. This is not a penalty — your money goes back to you, in your CPF — but it significantly affects how much cash you actually receive on completion.
What This Means If You Are Thinking of Selling
If your flat is in a mature estate, has more than 70 years of lease remaining, and is a 5-room or executive unit, the current market is the most favourable sellers have seen in decades. The data supports that clearly.
The strategic question is what comes next. If you are upgrading to private property, there is no ABSD to worry about on the private purchase — as long as you dispose of your HDB flat within 6 months from the private property's completion date. This gives upgraders a meaningful window to plan the move without rushing the HDB sale. Some families choose to sell the HDB first to simplify financing and avoid bridging, while others buy the private unit first and use the 6-month window to complete their HDB sale.
This move suits you if:
Your flat has passed MOP and you have been sitting on significant unrealised equity
You are comfortable managing the sequencing between your HDB sale and private property completion
You have done the CPF accrued interest calculation and know your real cash position
You are not planning to buy a subsidised HDB again (which would trigger the resale levy — $40,000 for a 4-room seller, $45,000 for a 5-room)
You can get a quick estimate of your flat's current value at homevalue.nexdoor.sg before you speak to anyone.
What This Means If You Are Thinking of Buying
Paying $1M or more for an HDB is a legitimate choice in 2025 — but it requires eyes-open decision-making.
HDB loans are capped at 75% LTV, so a $1,050,000 flat requires at least $262,500 in cash and/or CPF for the downpayment under an HDB loan. If you take a bank loan (75% LTV), the minimum cash component is 5% ($52,500) with the remainder from CPF — but your monthly repayment will be higher, and TDSR applies at 55% of gross monthly income.
The MSR rule — which caps monthly HDB loan repayments at 30% of gross income — matters here too. At a 2.6% HDB loan rate over 25 years, a $787,500 loan (75% of $1,050,000) translates to roughly $3,560/month. That implies a gross household income of at least ~$11,870/month to clear MSR.
For buyers, the bigger risk is not affordability at purchase — it is exit liquidity. An HDB flat remains subject to resale restrictions, lease decay, and future policy changes. Paying $1M+ for a flat with a shorter remaining lease (below 75 years) can create financing complications for the next buyer, which limits your eventual resale pool.
This purchase suits you if:
The flat has at least 80 years of remaining lease
You plan to owner-occupy for at least 5–8 years, absorbing the premium over time
You have stress-tested your finances at a 4% interest rate, not just the current rate
You are not expecting this to be an investment that beats private property — the data does not support that conclusion over a 10-year horizon for most HDB units
Is This a Bubble? The Honest Data Answer
This is the question everyone is thinking but fewer are asking aloud.
The structural answer is: not in the traditional sense. HDB resale is not driven by speculation — buyers must occupy the flat, cannot sub-let the whole unit freely, and face MOP restrictions on resale. The demand is real, the supply of larger, well-located flats is genuinely constrained, and Singapore's resident population continues to form households at a pace that sustains demand.
What the 1,500 milestone does signal is a permanent repricing of what "public housing" means in Singapore. The social contract has always been that HDB flats build wealth for ordinary households. The data from 2020 to 2025 shows that contract being delivered — sometimes spectacularly. Bukit Batok up 69%, Sembawang up 68%, Woodlands up 56%.
What it does not signal is that every HDB flat will reach $1M. Lease decay, flat size, and location still sort the market ruthlessly. A 3-room flat in an ageing block with 55 years remaining will not follow the same trajectory as a large 5-room in a mature estate with MRT access and top schools nearby.
The honest takeaway: if you own a well-located, larger flat with significant lease remaining and you are post-MOP, you are holding a genuinely valuable asset. The question is not whether to feel good about that — it is what decision that asset enables.
The Honest Answer
The 1,500 million-dollar HDB flats in 2025 are not a market distortion. They are the cumulative result of constrained supply, real household demand, and five years of consistent price growth across virtually every estate on the island. The data does not support panic, and it does not support complacency either.
For sellers, the opportunity is real — but the decision requires understanding your actual cash position after CPF, the 6-month HDB disposal window if you are upgrading to private, and whether the resale levy applies. For buyers, a million-dollar HDB can be the right home for the right family — but it demands the same rigour you would apply to a private property purchase.
The most important thing to understand is this: whether you are sitting on equity or looking to build it, the decisions made after the transaction matter more than the price itself.
Ask NexDoor! Have a specific block, flat, or area in mind — or just not sure if the numbers work for your situation? Our consultants — Dave (HDB & North region), Bjorn (data & resale analysis), and Abigail (strategy & positioning) — will walk you through everything before you make any moves. No guesswork, just clarity.
Data referenced from HDB, URA, and publicly available resale transaction records. Figures used are estimates or medians and may not reflect individual flat conditions, lease, or floor. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or property advice.
Sources:
HDB Resale Statistics — hdb.gov.sg/residential/buying-a-flat/resale/getting-started/resale-statistics
URA Private Residential Property Transactions — ura.gov.sg/reis
CPF Housing Withdrawal and Accrued Interest — cpf.gov.sg/member/tools-and-services/calculators/cpf-housing-usage